Computation forecasts

Computation forecasts

11

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Question 2
The U.S. Census Bureau publishes data on factory orders for all manufacturing, durable goods, and nondurable goods industries. Shown here are factory orders in the United States over a 13-year period ($ billion).
a. Use these data to develop forecasts for the years 6 through 13 using a 5-year moving average.
b. Use these data to develop forecasts for the years 6 through 13 using a 5-year weighted moving average. Weight the most recent year by 6, the previous year by 4, the year before that by 2, and the other years by 1.
c. Compute the errors of the forecasts in parts (a) and (b) and then the MAD. Which forecast is better?
YEARFACTORY ORDERS ($ billion)
12,512.70
22,739.20
32,874.90
42,934.10
52,865.70
62,978.50
73,092.40
83,356.80
93,607.60
103,749.30
113,952.00
123,949.00
13

Question 3
The “Economic Report to the President of the United States” included data on the amounts of manufacturers’ new and un?lled orders in millions of dollars. Shown here are the ?gures for new orders over a 21-year period. Use Excel to develop a regression model to ?t the trend effects for these data. Use a linear model and then try a quadratic model. How well does either model ?t the data?
YEARTOTAL NUMBER OF NEW ORDERS
155,022
255,921
364,182
476,003
587,327
685,139
799,513
8115,109
9131,629
10147,604
11156,359
12168,025
13162,140
14175,451
15192,879
16195,706
17195,204
18209,389
19227,025
20240,758
21243,643
4,137.00

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